Systemic Analysis of Factors Affecting Organizational Systems: A Case Study of the Development of Conflict-Affected Regions

Abstract

In contemporary organizational systems, particularly in conflict-affected regions, the decision-making process becomes even more complex due to high environmental instability, unpredictability of political, social, and economic factors, and the nonlinear dynamics of processes. Under such conditions, traditional management approaches often fail to ensure adequate situation assessment and optimal decision-making. To address these challenges, it is essential to employ systems modeling methodologies that enable understanding of complex system behavior, identification of interconnections, and formalization of the decision-making process.

The article examines a systems modeling methodology based on goal structuring, ranking, and weighting mechanisms. The use of cognitive maps is proposed, which enables visualization of interdependencies between system elements and identification of influence directions. Through this approach, it becomes possible to analyze different scenarios and conduct preliminary assessment of decision outcomes.